Baseball Probability Toy
Baseball Probability Toy is a small simulator for exploring baseball outcomes through probability rather than play-by-play realism. It models plate appearances, scoring, and game flow using simple statistical inputs and random sampling.
Stats Used in the Probability Model
The simulation uses the following player stats to determine at-bat outcomes, fielding plays, baserunning, and pitcher fatigue:
Batting
- PA: Plate Appearances
- H: Hits
- HR: Home Runs
- BB: Walks
- SO: Strikeouts
- SF: Sacrifice Flies
- HBP: Hit By Pitch
- singles: Singles
- doubles: Doubles
- triples: Triples
- kRate: Strikeout Rate (K/PA)
- bbRate: Walk Rate (BB/PA)
- hrRate: Home Run Rate (HR/PA)
- BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play
Pitching
- TBF: Total Batters Faced
- IP: Innings Pitched
- H: Hits Allowed
- HR: Home Runs Allowed
- BB: Walks Allowed
- SO: Strikeouts
- HBP: Hit By Pitch
- kRate: Strikeout Rate (K/TBF)
- bbRate: Walk Rate (BB/TBF)
- hrRate: Home Run Rate (HR/TBF)
- BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play Allowed
Fielding
- position: Defensive Position
- G: Games Played
- Inn: Innings Played
- PO: Putouts
- A: Assists
- E: Errors
- DP: Double Plays Turned
- FP: Fielding Percentage
- RF: Range Factor
- TZ: Total Zone Runs
Catching
- sbAllowed: Stolen Bases Allowed
- cs: Caught Stealing
- csPct: Caught Stealing Percentage
- pickoffs: Pickoffs
- armStrength: Arm Strength
- PB: Passed Balls
Baserunning
- runsBaserunning: Baserunning Value
- speed: Speed Rating
Fatigue
- battersFaced: Batters faced by current pitcher (used for fatigue effects)
These stats are used in combination to determine:
- At-bat outcome probabilities (K, BB, HR, 1B, 2B, 3B, Out)
- Double/triple play chances (fielding stats)
- Error rates (fielding stats)
- Steal and pickoff success (baserunning, catcher, pitcher stats)
- Passed ball/wild pitch rates (catcher stats)
- Baserunner advancement (speed, baserunning value)
- Pitcher fatigue effects (batters faced)